Probabilistic Forecasting of Bubbles and Flash Crashes

We propose a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to obtain predictive probabilities of the apparition and devolution of bubbles. The distribution of the autoregressive coefficient of this model is allowed to be centred at an O(T−α) distance of unity, with α ∈ (0, 1). When the expectation of the autoregressive coefficient lies on the explosive side of unity, the NERC helps to model the temporary explosiveness of time series and obtain related predictive probabilities. We study the asymptotic properties of the NERC and provide a procedure for inference on the parameters. In empirical illustrations, we estimate predictive probabilities of bubbles or flash crashes in financial asset prices

Relativistic mean field study of the properties of Z=117 nucleus and the decay chains of 293,294^{293,294}117 isotopes

We have calculated the binding energy, root-mean-square radius and quadrupole deformation parameter for the recently synthesized superheavy element Z=117, using the axially deformed relativistic mean field (RMF) model. The calculation is extended to various isotopes of Z=117 element, strarting from A=286 till A=310. We predict almost spherical structures in the ground state for almost all the isotopes. A shape transition appears at about A=292 from prolate to a oblate shape structures of Z=117 nucleus in our mean field approach. The most stable isotope (largest binding energy per nucleon) is found to be the $^{288}$117 nucleus. Also, the Q-value of $\alpha$-decay $Q_\alpha$ and the half-lives $T_{\alpha}$ are calculated for the $\alpha$-decay chains of $^{293}$117 and $^{294}$117, supporting the magic numbers at N=172 and/ or 184.Comment: 6 Pages and 8 Figure

The strength of nuclear shell effects at N=126 in the r-process region

We have investigated nuclear shell effects across the magic number N=126 in the region of the r-process path. Microscopic calculations have been performed using the relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov approach within the framework of the RMF theory for isotopic chains of rare-earth nuclei in the r-process region. The Lagrangian model NL-SV1 with the inclusion of the vector self-coupling of omega meson has been employed. The RMF results show that the shell effects at N=126 remain strong and exhibit only a slight reduction in the strength in going from the r-process path to the neutron drip line. This is in striking contrast to a systematic weakening of the shell effects at N=82 in the r-process region predicted earlier in the similar approach. In comparison the shell effects with microscopic-macroscopic mass formulae show a near constancy of shell gaps leading to strong shell effects in the region of r-process path to the drip line. A recent analysis of solar-system r-process abundances in a prompt supernova explosion model using various mass formulae including the recently introduced mass tables based upon HFB approach shows that whilst mass formulae with weak shell effects at N=126 give rise to a spread and an overproduction of nuclides near the third abundance peak at A~190, mass tables with droplet models showing stronger shell effects are able to reproduce the abundance features near the third peak appropriately. In comparison, several analyses of the second r-process peak at A~130 have required weakened shell effects at N=82. Our predictions in the RMF theory with NL-SV1, which exhibit weaker shell effects at N=82 and stronger one at N=126 in the r-process region, support the conjecture that a different nature of the shell effects at the magic numbers may be at play in r-process nucleosynthesis of heavy nuclei.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures; submitted to Physical Review C. Part of this work was presented at Nuclear Physics in Astrophysics II, 20th International Nuclear Physics Divisional Conference of the European Physical Society, at Debrecen, Hungary, May 16-20, 200

Two-body correlation functions in nuclear matter with npnp condensate

The density, spin and isospin correlation functions in nuclear matter with a neutron-proton ($np$) condensate are calculated to study the possible signatures of the BEC-BCS crossover in the low-density region. It is shown that the criterion of the crossover (Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 95}, 090402 (2005)), consisting in the change of the sign of the density correlation function at low momentum transfer, fails to describe correctly the density-driven BEC-BCS transition at finite isospin asymmetry or finite temperature. As an unambiguous signature of the BEC-BCS transition, there can be used the presence (BCS regime) or absence (BEC regime) of the singularity in the momentum distribution of the quasiparticle density of states.Comment: Prepared with RevTeX4, 5p., 4 figure

Heat transfer simulation of the cure of thermoplastic particle interleaf carbon fibre epoxy prepregs

Thermochemical properties are needed to develop process models and define suitable cure cycles to convert thermosetting polymers into rigid glassy materials. Uncertainty surrounding the suitability of thermal analysis techniques and semi-empirical models developed for conventional composite materials has been raised for the new class of particle interleaf materials. This paper describes kinetics, conductivity, heat capacity and glass transition temperature measurements of HexPly® M21 particle interleaf material. Thermal models describing conventional, non-particle epoxy systems were fit to the data and validated through a thick-section cure. Results from curing experiments agree with heat transfer simulation predictions, indicating that established thermal analysis techniques and models can describe polymerisation and evolving material properties during processing of a material representing the class of interleaf toughened systems. A sensitivity study showed time savings up to about 20%, and associated energy-efficiency-productivity benefits can be achieved by using cure simulation for particle interleaf materials

First decay study of the very neutron-rich isotope Br-93

The decay of the mass-separated, very neutron-rich isotope Br-93 has been studied by gamma-spectroscopy. A level scheme of its daughter Kr-93 has been constructed. Level energies, gamma-ray branching ratios and multipolarities suggest spins and parities which are in accord with a smooth systematics of the N=57 isotones for Z less-equal 40, suggesting the N=56 shell closure still to be effective in Kr isotopes. So far, there is no indication of a progressive onset of deformation in neutron-rich Kr isotopes.The decay of the mass-separated, very neutron-rich isotope Br-93 has been studied by gamma-spectroscopy. A level scheme of its daughter Kr-93 has been constructed. Level energies, gamma-ray branching ratios and multipolarities suggest spins and parities which are in accord with a smooth systematics of the N=57 isotones for Z less-equal 40, suggesting the N=56 shell closure still to be effective in Kr isotopes. So far, there is no indication of a progressive onset of deformation in neutron-rich Kr isotopes

Closed shells at drip-line nuclei

The shell structure of magic nuclei far from stability is discussed in terms of the self-consistent spherical Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov theory. In particular, the sensitivity of the shell-gap sizes and the two-neutron separation energies to the choice of particle-hole and particle-particle components of the effective interaction is investigated.Comment: 19 pages, LaTeX, 8 uuencoded figures available upon reques

The Ubiquity of the Rapid Neutron-Capture Process

To better characterize the abundance patterns produced by the r-process, we have derived new abundances or upper limits for the heavy elements zinc (Zn), yttrium (Y), lanthanum (La), europium (Eu), and lead (Pb). Our sample of 161 metal-poor stars includes new measurements from 88 high resolution and high signal-to-noise spectra obtained with the Tull Spectrograph on the 2.7m Smith Telescope at McDonald Observatory, and other abundances are adopted from the literature. We use models of the s-process in AGB stars to characterize the high Pb/Eu ratios produced in the s-process at low metallicity, and our new observations then allow us to identify a sample of stars with no detectable s-process material. In these stars, we find no significant increase in the Pb/Eu ratios with increasing metallicity. This suggests that s-process material was not widely dispersed until the overall Galactic metallicity grew considerably, perhaps even as high as [Fe/H]=-1.4. We identify a dispersion of at least 0.5 dex in [La/Eu] in metal-poor stars with [Eu/Fe]<+0.6 attributable to the r-process, suggesting that there is no unique "pure" r-process elemental ratio among pairs of rare earth elements. We confirm earlier detections of an anti-correlation between Y/Eu and Eu/Fe bookended by stars strongly enriched in the r-process (e.g., CS 22892-052) and those with deficiencies of the heavy elements (e.g., HD 122563). We can reproduce the range of Y/Eu ratios using simulations of high-entropy neutrino winds of core-collapse supernovae that include charged-particle and neutron-capture components of r-process nucleosynthesis. The heavy element abundance patterns in most metal-poor stars do not resemble that of CS 22892-052, but the presence of heavy elements such as Ba in nearly all metal-poor stars without s-process enrichment suggests that the r-process is a common phenomenon.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 25 pages, 13 figure